China's Cropland Loss: An Increasing Threat to Food Security Under Climate Change

A recent peer-reviewed article in the February 2025 issue of Science China Earth Sciences warns that China could lose up to 35% of its cultivable land by 2100, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement. This alarming forecast raises serious concerns about China's food security and necessitates urgent policy adjustments to protect agricultural land.

Future Land Use Changes

The study, led by Gao Peichao, deputy director of Beijing Normal University's Centre for Geo-Data and Analysis, employed advanced modeling techniques to predict land use in the future. Researchers combined the CLUMondo land change model with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to assess how land use might evolve in a 1.5°C warming world. Their study indicates that vast tracts of China's farmland are at risk of being converted into wetlands and forests, particularly in key grain-producing regions such as the Sichuan Basin and north and northeast China plains. Dramatic changes are also anticipated in cropland and grassland areas of China's coastal and southern provinces, and in wetland areas along the east coast and southern coastal provinces. Specifically, the study estimates that high-density cropland would reduce by approximately 50%, having a significant impact on food supplies.

Implications for Food Security

Given a population of more than 1.4 billion, China's ability to guarantee sufficient agricultural output is of critical significance. Loss of cropland would lead to increased reliance on food imports, exposing the nation to the vagaries of external markets and geopolitical risks. Moreover, the displacement of farm communities would lead to rural economies being dislocated and widen social inequalities.

Current Cropland Protection Policies

China has implemented various policies aimed at the conservation of its agricultural land:

The "Redline" Policy (2006) requires cultivated land not to fall below 120 million hectares in a bid to ensure food security.
The "Permanent Basic Cropland" System preserves high-quality croplands strictly for conservation from non-agricultural use.
The "Increase-Decrease Linkage" Policy allows the transformation of rural land to urban use, provided that the same quantity of new arable land is opened elsewhere.
Despite these being policy measures in effect, rapid urbanization and climate change are strong challenges to the sustainability of agriculture.

Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Challenges:

Urban expansion is threatening fertile agricultural land.
Inconsistencies in land use projections hinder effective policy implementation.
Climate change exacerbates water scarcity and soil degradation.
Recommended Policy Enhancements:

Strengthen Monitoring and Enforcement – Use satellite monitoring to detect unauthorized land conversions.
Promote Sustainable Urban Planning – Encourage development that prioritizes cropland preservation.
Enhance Agricultural Productivity – Invest in research and sustainable farming practices.
Incentivize Land Conservation – Reward farmers to switch to environmentally friendly methods.
Enlighten Public Opinion – Educate citizens about sustainable agriculture.

Global Context and Technological Innovations

China's loss of productive land is one of numerous worldwide challenges highlighted by the impacts of climate change. Rising global temperatures and extreme weather events threaten food security globally. International action and technological advancements, such as precision agriculture and agroforestry, can be useful tools in de-escalating these threats.

In addition, engaging local stakeholders in land-use planning decisions enables policies to meet local needs and be effectively implemented.