China's Trade Performance in 2025
China's first-half 2025 trade performance has been drastically tested, reflecting global economic volatility and rising trade tensions.
- Exports: China's exports during January and February increased by only a paltry 2.3% year-on-year, falling short of the 5% growth forecast.
- Imports: China's imports fell 8.4%, mirroring softer domestic demand as well as rising economic stress.
- Trade Surplus: Despite dwindling exports, China's trade surplus increased to $170.52 billion as the fall in imports overshadowed exports.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs on China
One of the biggest impacts on China's trade is the new 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, imposed by the U.S. under President Donald Trump's Executive Order 14195, effective February 4, 2025.
- China's Retaliation:
- 15% tariffs on American coal and liquefied natural gas.
- 10% tariffs on American oil and farm machinery.
- Antitrust probe on Google and export limits on metals such as tungsten.
- PVH Corp. and Illumina included on China's Unreliable Entity List.
Trade experts warn that the U.S.-China trade war could further disrupt global supply chains and slow global economic growth.
Sectoral Trade Performance
- Exports to the U.S. rose 2.3% year-on-year in Jan-Feb 2025.
- Exports to the EU and Japan saw marginal growth of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.
- Exports to Russia fell 10.9%, in line with weakening trade relations.
- ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, registering 5.7% growth in exports.
China's Economic Response & Outlook
As a response to economic pressure, Premier Li Qiang has advocated a very ambitious 2025 GDP growth target of 5% and pledged to increase spending on the budget as well as strengthening domestic demand.
Global Market Reactions
- FTSE 100 falls 1.8%, worst week so far in 2025.
- Oil prices plunged 4% to $70 per barrel, largest monthly decline since October 2024.
- Investor sentiment has dulled, with fear of a world trade war spooking major markets.
U.S. Seeks to Counter China's Global Reach
- The Trump administration is developing a new executive order to strengthen U.S. shipbuilding and reduce on Chinese-built ships.
- Tax credits, grants, and loans for American shipbuilders are part of the proposal.
- A new import tax on Chinese-linked ships would be levied to protect U.S. maritime security.
China's Stance on U.S. Policies
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has denounced U.S. tariffs as "two-faced" and warned that the "America First" policy could destabilize global trade.
Future Outlook: What's Next for China and Global Trade?
With ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S., businesses all over the world must prepare for potential disruptions in supply chains and rebalance investment plans.
- Will the trade war escalate further?
- How will China navigate economic pressures?
- What impact will U.S. tariffs have on global markets?
Stay tuned for more updates on China trade news.
Related Links:
- U.S. to levy fees on China-linked ships
- China slams ‘two-faced’ Donald Trump as export growth slows
- China’s Foreign Minister Condemns U.S. Tariffs