Syria After Assad: Tentative Hopes Amid Challenges of Sectarian Reconciliation
The fall of Bashar Assad marked a significant milestone in Syria's history and ushered in cautious optimism for peace and equality after five decades of authoritarian rule. Fears of widespread sectarian violence, which have so far failed to materialize since the beginning of the near-14-year civil war, have kept the worst predictions at bay. Yet, the way to lasting peace is a minefield.
Since Assad's fall, scattered acts of revenge killing have cropped up, specifically against Alawites, a minority sect. Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam and comprised the bulk of Assad's repressive regime. Activists and experts reported dozens of deaths from sectarian reprisals, yet far less than the violence that many predicted.
Much of the credit for this relative calm has been attributed to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamic militant group that led the insurgency against Assad. HTS, formerly linked to al-Qaida, has publicly denounced sectarianism and vowed to uphold pluralism. Its leadership has actively worked to quell tensions in communities affected by revenge killings, looting, and harassment.
Justice and Reconciliation
While pursuing its reconciliation policy, the interim government headed by HTS has also moved toward accountability: the government is reportedly planning special courts to prosecute those accused of atrocities during the rule of Assad, especially perpetrators of torture and execution of political prisoners. Meanwhile, offering amnesty to lower-ranking state officials and military personnel-a number of whom have willingly handed their weapons over to the current rulers-has been promised.
"If we want to establish social peace, there must be justice, and there is no justice without accountability," said Obeida Arnaout, a spokesman for the interim government.
Efforts are also being made to encourage mutual respect among Syria's diverse ethnic and religious groups. With 75% of the population made up of Sunnis and the remainder Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Ismaili Shiites, the need for inclusiveness is deeply felt.
The Role of HTS and International Concerns
HTS, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, has taken on a more public approach of tolerance and pluralism. While labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and other Western powers for its infamous past, HTS has shown no enforcement of strict religious laws within the territories under its control. According to reports, Christians and Druze are among minority groups allowed to practice their faiths.
But there are skeptics. Many observers of the international community, including U.S. officials, still have doubts that the group will continue to safeguard the rights of minorities and women over time. Delisting HTS as a terrorist organization and lifting economic enforcements on Syria are things it will need to prove through further reforms and respect for human rights.
Sectarian Violence: An Ongoing Concern
But sectarian attacks continue, even as efforts are being made to stabilize the country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in Britain, has counted at least 72 killings in four religiously mixed provinces since Assad's departure. Assaults have turned places like Bahra, a village in Hama province, into ghost towns. In one incident, a dozen Alawites were killed over three days, including eight from one family.
The specter of escalating violence continues to loom over the parties. Political analysts, such as Hilal Khashan at the American University of Beirut, caution that the precarious peace will break down if efforts at grievance satisfaction and reconciliation do not persist.
A Way Forward
While the fall of Assad has brought hope for a new chapter in Syria's history, significant challenges lie ahead for the country to see long-term peace and stability. The interim government led by HTS will have to maintain a delicate balance between justice and reconciliation while earning the trust of its citizens and the international community.
The journey of Syria towards pluralism and equality will depend on how well it overcomes the shadows of its authoritarian past. Whether the country can truly be transformed into a peaceful and inclusive society is an open question, but tentative steps taken so far provide a glimmer of hope.