Putin's Desperate Gamble: Reversing Russia's Population Crisis through Ukraine
Russia is facing a demographic crisis that is threatening severe damage to its long-term stability and influence. With an increasingly shrinking and aging population-not to mention low birth rates-Kremlin efforts to stem the trend have had minimal success. Experts say that Vladimir Putin might regard Ukraine not only as a pawn in geopolitical games but also as a desperate solution to Russia's demographic problems.
Russia's Shrinking Population: A Crisis Decades in the Making - Russia's population, presently at about 146 million, has been on a steady slide from its peak of 148 million in the early 1990s. The United Nations projects that this number could fall to as low as 74 million or as high as 112 million by the end of the century. • The causes are complex:
- Low Fertility Rates: Incentives such as government tax breaks and expanded child-care programs have failed to nudge Russia's fertility rate above the lowest level in 25 years.
- War Losses: Severe casualties, especially of young men, have increased the demographic decline caused by ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
- Mass Emigration: Thousands of young Russians have left the country, especially following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, further depleting the population of its most productive age group.
Ukraine: A Demographic Solution?
According to Ivan Krastev, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Bulgaria, and Stephen Holmes, a law professor at New York University, Putin's fixation on bemoaning the decline in Russia's demographics may hint at partial reasoning behind 2022's invasion into Ukraine.
In an analysis published December 6 in Foreign Policy, the scholars compared Russia's behavior to the "mourning wars" of 17th- and 18th-century Native American tribes, which kidnapped women and children from other tribes to make up for population losses. Krastev and Holmes compare the Russian strategy of forcibly adding Ukraine's population to its own by means of annexation and mass kidnappings of children.
Putin understands that, in the world of tomorrow, Russia will be a territorial giant and population dwarf," Krastev and Holmes argue.
A History of Population Prioritization
Putin's preoccupation with demographics is well-documented. During a 2021 speech to schoolchildren, he expressed that national security depends upon population growth: "A huge territory and vast natural resources mean nothing without a strong man.".
The war in Ukraine has become about more than just territorial ambitions. There have been reports of thousands of Ukrainian children being kidnapped and forcibly adopted by Russian families. Such practices have been condemned as a war crime by the international community, and it fits what Krastev and Holmes call an "updated version" of the population-replenishing wars of history.
The Larger Ramifications
While imperialist ambitions and anti-Western sentiment remain driving forces behind the invasion, the demographic dimension adds a new layer to understanding Putin's actions. By incorporating Ukraine's population, Russia seeks to address its demographic crisis while securing Great Power recognition and rebuilding its Soviet-era sphere of influence.
But it is a very costly strategy. The war has isolated Russia internationally even more, deepened its economic woes, and accelerated the emigration of young, educated citizens.
Conclusion
Putin’s gamble to reverse Russia’s population decline through war and forced integration reveals the depth of the demographic crisis facing the nation. Yet, this desperate strategy may prove unsustainable in the long run, as the economic, social, and political consequences of the war continue to mount.
Russia’s future as a “territorial giant” but a “population dwarf” remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the demographic clock is ticking, and the stakes for Putin—and Russia—have never been higher.
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