China's Declining Border Populations with Central Asia: A National Security Concern
An increasingly alarming trend for China is the border with Central Asia amidst a demographic decline in its western regions. With the continuing population decline in towns along the border, experts warn that China must urgently address the challenge of holding its population to ensure that national interests and national security are protected.
According to He Dan, a leading researcher at the China Population and Development Research Centre, the population decline in China's border towns must be integrated into national defense and security strategies. These towns, especially in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, are crucial for China's foreign trade but are rapidly losing residents, which might pose a threat to border security.
Demographic Decline on China's Border with Central Asia
China’s western border counties, which include critical hubs such as Alashankou Port in Xinjiang and Manzhouli Port in Inner Mongolia, are experiencing a worrying population decline. He Dan noted that many of these counties have populations under 200,000, with some seeing significant decreases despite their strategic importance.
For instance, Alashankou Port handles more than half of China's overland freight volume, but the city has a population of merely 17,000, with only around 3,400 permanent residents. In the same way, Manzhouli Port, where over 60% of China-Russia overland trade passes through, its population has decreased from 128,900 in 2020 to only 88,800 in 2023.
The Economic and Security Significance of Border Towns
These regions are crucial in China's trade with Central Asia and beyond. The fast population growth in the neighboring Central Asian countries, compared to the inflow of Chinese immigrants and shrinking populations in these key towns, poses a complex challenge to national security and foreign trade.
He Dan said China needed to emphasize population security by incorporating demographic issues into the country's defense framework. Continued declines in border populations could have implications for security but also for economic growth.
Challenges Facing China's Border Regions
Border cities of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are facing quite a number of challenges that act as barriers to population growth. The region is ecologically burdened with severe desertification, a shortage of water, and infertile land, which makes it difficult to live in. At the same time, high living costs and underdeveloped infrastructure further complicate efforts to retain residents and attract new talent.
These regions also face the issue of aging demographics, which makes the goal of reversing population decline even harder to achieve. According to He Dan, they have fragile ecosystems; therefore, more attention needs to be given by both government and policy makers toward vulnerabilities in these towns.
National Security and Foreign Trade Implications
Considering these cities' strategic functions for securing China's borders and facilitating overland trade with Russia and Central Asia, China has an urgent need to address population decline. He Dan added that border security should be closely linked with population strategy so economic and trade routes would be secure and sustainable despite demographic changes.
Addressing the Population Decline in Border Towns
According to experts, the government needs to invest more in these regions to change the demographic decline. It means infrastructure development, policy initiatives to attract younger populations, and addressing environmental and social challenges that make life in these areas difficult.
For China to make its border regions stable in the long run, it needs to associate population growth strategies with the country's national security. Without doing this, it may reinforce current vulnerabilities and stand in the way of China's ability to protect economic and geopolitical interests.
Conclusion: Call to Action on Border Population Issues for China
It is these declining populations along China's Central Asian border that pose a serious threat to national security and economic stability. By addressing border security, working to improve living conditions, and encouraging population growth, China can secure the western frontier and continue to play an influential role in international trade. Grasping these demographic challenges today allows for securing a prosperous, stable future for such regions.