In a surprising turn of events, on April 10, 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a critical change in his stance on the India-China relationship while giving an important interview to Newsweek, an American publication. This interview came out during a very critical time-an extremely charged and polarized campaign season leading up to the national elections in India. Historically, the BJP has been proud of a strident nationalistic rhetoric, particularly on issues related to security, and had assumed pretty tough stances on China in its election campaigns. In a surprisingly conciliatory approach, Modi seemed to have softened that stance, thereby indicating a possible change of course in bilateral relations.
In the Newsweek interview, Modi talked about the need for a positive and constructive bilateral engagement between India and China at both the diplomatic and military levels. He opined that such engagement is important to restore peace and tranquillity along the borders. "The relation with China is salient and important," Modi said, adding, "We need to urgently address the prolonged situation on our borders so that the abnormality in our bilateral interactions can be put behind us." He further underlined that stable and peaceful relations between India and China are not only essential for the two countries but also for the region and the world.
China responded positively to Modi's utterances with a mutual interest in maintaining "sound and stable" relations, which both countries recognized as serving the common interest of both countries. This exchange has raised a hope in diplomatic circles that a possibility of breakthrough in the thawing of strained, often tense relations between the two Asian giants is finally in sight.
Historical Context: A Long Road to Peace
History seems to have played a very important part in the relations between India and China, as far as the historic sense in both their nationalist discourses is concerned. As a sequel to this, perhaps the most wide-known irritant is the Sino-Indian border dispute in the regions of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The Sino-Indian War in 1962, where there was substantial loss of life and territory to India, has kept the memory of mistrust between the two nations fresh. While various diplomatic efforts were made to sort this out, it appears that the issue stays unresolved and erupts now and then, for example, the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. This has only increased the distrust and reinforced the need for a robust and lasting solution.
The disputes over the border are not just related to control of the territory; there are issues related to national pride and security. In the case of India, repeated incursions by Chinese troops across LAC mean a direct affront to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. For China, this strategic area gives greatness to holding regional dominance, securing the western frontier of China, and it also houses the sensitive region of Tibet.
For an in-depth historical perspective of India-China relations, refer to: [this in-depth analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations.
Geopolitical Implications: The Greater Ambit
The stakes in the India-China relationship go way beyond bilateral relations, as both India and China are among the most populous nations of the world, with a fast-growing economy. Hence, their roles and contributions are quite important to the world's geopolitical environment. Their relationship has impacts on regional stability in Asia, global economic dynamics, and even global politics.
This competition finds expression among others in the Indo-Pacific, where both nations enlarge their circle of influence. The "Act East" policy of India and its strategic partnerships with the United States, Japan, and Australia within the Quad framework are seen as balancing the increased Chinese aggression in the region. While China is leading the BRI-a Chinese attempt to increase connectivity and cooperation among the vast regions of Asia, Africa, and Europe through large-scale infrastructure projects that India has usually looked at with suspicion as a bid to solidify China's geopolitical influence. India is trying to ensure its own position in the region.
The contest between India and China does not stop at military and strategic. Economically also, both are contenders for leadership at the regional and extra-regional levels. China had, by then, already accumulated considerable economic power-hence manufacturing primacy, closely intertwined with state-of-the-art technologies. India's boom as an emerging power is sustained by its leading position in international services and by recent rapid progress in digital development. However, trade imbalance and the recent move by India to reduce its dependency on Chinese imports with policies such as "Atmanirbhar Bharat" or Self-Reliant India have strained the economic relations between the two countries.
If one is to look at the geopolitical context of the rivalry between India and China, he/she may refer to [this article by The Diplomat at https://thediplomat.com/].
Challenges to Lasting Peace: Mistrust and Strategic Interests
With all the niceties in Modi's utterances and the -return of compliment from China, the path to lasting peace along the Himalayan borders is anything but smooth. The two nations have a chequered history of negotiations on the border dispute. Twenty-one rounds of core commander-level meetings and 29 meetings of the WMCC on India-China border affairs have been held through the years, but no significant breakthrough has been achieved.
Basically, there are many reasons; however, one main cause for this impasse lies in the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations. The memory of past conflict and the strategic importance of the territories in conflict puts either side under pressure not to concede too much. In the case of India, for instance, it really cannot afford to make any serious compromise on the issue at stake since such an attempt at compromise might signal weakness, especially in the highly developed sensitivity concerning national security in its domestic politics. For China, there is a link between the perception of its regional dominance and security interests relating to Tibet, and its territorial integrity; thus, the disputed areas must be kept under control.
The resolution process is further complicated by broader strategic interests of the two countries. China's rise in South Asia, through investments in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, is a cause of disquiet in New Delhi. On its part, India's developing relations with the United States and participation in the Quad is looked upon as a balancing factor against Chinese influence in the region.
These interests are so intricate that, when the borderline dispute is finally settled, this would require not only negotiations of diplomatic issues but also a more comprehensive realignment of regional and global strategies. Both nations would have to balance their rivalry while continuing to work in common on such things as climate change, trade, and regional security.
You can read more on the challenges to India-China relations in this analysis by Carnegie India.
The Road Ahead: Can Diplomacy Prevail?
While the recent utterances of Modi and the encouraging response from China are events to look forward to, the path ahead is fraught with doubt. These are going to be months of trial for India-China relations. Much will depend on how the two nations are able to convert the diplomatic overtures into action on the ground that would build mutual trust and lay the ground for a lasting solution over the differences.
Progress could conceivably be made in devising more CBMs between the two countries-military disengagement agreements, joint patrols, and demilitarization arrangements on the LAC. Strengthening economic cooperation and people-to-people exchange would further dissipate mutual distrust and bring a better atmosphere into the bilateral relationship.
These efforts will, however, require strong political will on both sides-determination from both India and China to genuinely see the development of good neighborly ties. For India, this has to be a balance between national security and peaceful relations in the neighborhood. As for China, it has to accord due recognition to India as a regional player and demonstrate political will for serious dialogue on the border issue.
Ultimately, the future of the relationship between India and China will depend upon the ability of the two countries to come to a common understanding and, when not possible, to resolve differences through diplomacy, rather than conflict. The stakes are higher than ever before-not just for India and China but for the entire region and the world.
For a more in-depth look at possible diplomatic solutions, see this report by the Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/.
Conclusion
The stakes have continued to rise as Modi's term opens avenues of peace. Such a move will shape not only the future course of India-China relations but may go further in deeply influencing regional and global stability. And one would not be wrong in asking whether India and China can rise above their chequered past to create a future of peaceful coexistence or if the deep-rooted challenges may prove insurmountable.