As the country prepares for its presidential election in 2026, alarm bells are ringing at human rights organizations over warnings of possible "mass atrocities." The political landscape is filled with increasing tensions, opposition crackdowns, and unsettling threats from key political figures as President Yoweri Museveni seeks an unprecedented seventh term.
40 Years of Museveni's Rule
President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, will have reigned over Uganda for 40 years by the time people go to the polls on January 12, 2026. The ruling party launched a voter registration drive to kickstart the electoral process, but critics say Museveni's tenure has become identified with authoritarianism and human rights violations.
The biggest threat to Museveni's rule comes from opposition leader and musician-turned-politician Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi. During the 2021 elections, Wine and his supporters were subjected to a violent crackdown-a pattern that is likely to continue.
Opposition Voices Stifled
Wine, who has been arrested numerous times and has said he has been the target of several assassination attempts, paints a bleak picture of Uganda's forthcoming election.
"We've been treated as the opposition horrifically by the government, and it's something which we expect even to be worse in these upcoming elections." So Wine accused President Museveni, alleging that he stays in power via violence and terror. "So we are prepared enough for the struggle in the liberation of our country."
Such fears are not exactly unreasonable. High-profile threats and politically motivated charges in the last few months have raised the temperature. Mr. Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, widely seen as Mr. Museveni's successor, took to social media to warn Wine that he would "cut off his head" today if "Mzee (Museveni) was not there."
Crackdowns Beyond Borders
The hostile attitude that has characterized the government's approach to opposition figures overspills the borders of Uganda. In July, 36 members of the opposition party, Forum for Democratic Change, were abducted in Kenya and later charged with terrorism upon arrival in Uganda.
Similarly, former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye was abducted from Kenya into Uganda, where he is standing trial for treason-a crime carrying the death penalty.
These incidents have drawn widespread condemnation, with critics arguing that Museveni's government is weaponizing the judiciary and security forces to suppress dissent.
The Role of the International Community
The international community has also taken cognizance of the volatile political climate in Uganda. The US-based Holocaust Memorial Museum released a report citing the likelihood of "mass atrocities" on the occasion of the election. The regime's brutal handling of protests and growing corruption was mentioned as being partly responsible for instability in the report.
Ashleigh Landau, the report's author, warned, "If protests grow larger, the government may view Bobi Wine as a more significant threat and crack down even more harshly."
A Culture of Violence
Violence is a hallmark of Uganda's election cycles under Museveni. As George Kanyeihamba, a retired judge of the Supreme Court, says, "Violence has become part and parcel of electioneering under Museveni. Only a miracle will change that in 2026.
While the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) insists that it promotes peaceful elections, the opposition accuses the government of perpetuating a climate of fear and intimidation. Emmanuel Dombo, a spokesman for the NRM, dismissed allegations of violence against his party: "Our opponents promote messages of violence, not us."
What Lies Ahead?
As Uganda inches toward the 2026 election, the stakes are higher than ever: an aging president, his ambitious heir, and a resilient opposition forge a fork in the road.
The question lingers on whether the election will bring meaningful change or further the country's deep-rooted political and social divides. For now, the world watches anxiously, praying for peace yet prepared for the worst.