Ethiopia's Minister of Defence, Aisha Mohammed Mussa, visited Somalia on Thursday in what was the first bilateral meeting between the two nations in over a year. The visit points to a possible thaw in relations that soured over Ethiopia's plans to build a naval base in Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region of Somalia.
A Visit of Strategic Importance
Somalia's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar, confirmed the visit but refused to pre-empt the agenda of the discussions. Later, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on X that both countries agreed to work together on the African Union peacekeeping mission #AUSSOM and to cement bilateral relations.
This new commitment to cooperation perhaps ushers in a way for stability in the Horn of Africa, a region that has been ravaged by political tension and insurgency for quite a while.
Background: The Rift Over Somaliland
This strain between Ethiopia and Somalia has its genesis in a very controversial preliminary agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Under that deal, it was agreed that Somaliland—although having had de facto autonomy since 1991 but never internationally recognized—is to lease part of its coastline to Ethiopia for a naval base and a commercial port, while Ethiopia was to consider support for Somaliland's pursuit of independence.
However, Mogadishu viewed this agreement as an outright breach of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, bordering on aggression. Intense opposition by the Somali Government reached a crescendo of threats to remove Ethiopia's military forces from Somali soil if Addis Ababa would not abrogate the agreement.
Mediation and Renewed Dialogue
International mediation involved talks between the two most notably in Turkey, where Ethiopia and Somalia signed an agreement on December 11 to end their disputes through dialogue. Technical negotiations were to start by the end of February 2025, a cautious but significant movement toward reconciliation.
The Role of Ethiopian Troops in Somalia
Ethiopia deploys up to 10,000 troops in Somalia, part of the African Union peacekeeping mission and under bilateral agreements. These forces are playing a very critical role in countering the al Shabaab insurgency, an al Qaeda affiliate responsible for widespread violence since 2007.
A prospective withdrawal of Ethiopian forces has sent jitters to regional powers, given the risk that such a move may embolden al Shabaab and worsen instability. This makes restoration of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia a regional security matter.
Implications for the Horn of Africa
The tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have wider ramifications in the Horn of Africa. Somalia's reaction to the Ethiopian deal with Somaliland was to move closer to Ethiopia's traditional enemies, Egypt and Eritrea. These shifting alliances run the risk of creating new fault lines in an already volatile region.
Looking Ahead
Minister Aisha Mohammed Mussa's visit to Somalia presents a defining moment in mending fences and addressing mutual concerns. The international community will be closely watching as the technical negotiations move along, whether Ethiopia and Somalia can indeed build a workable partnership to further regional security and economic cooperation.
As this visit attests, there is always a window for diplomacy to bridge the divides and create stability in one of the most strategic regions in Africa.